With early voting underway for the November election we're starting to see results trickle in for a few states. One of the most interesting result totals so far is in Nebraska.
In particular the Nebraska counties Douglas, Lancaster, and Sarpy:
Each of the above counties cover a major metropolitan area in Nebraska (Douglas and Sarpy cover Omaha, Lancaster covers Lincoln). While these vote returns look totally normal for an election, what is interesting about them is who is casting these ballots and the rate at which their casting. More after the flip!
Before we begin here is a side by side comparison of the 2010 midterms vote by mail returns compared to the 2014 midterms through Oct. 14:
| 2010 Results | 2014 Results | |
| Douglas | 24,623 | 4,972 |
| Lancaster | 14,411 | 7,470 |
| Sarpy | 8,364 | 1,735 |
Now when we break down each county by party and rate of return things start to get interesting:
Douglas County
Democrats in Douglas county are requesting ballots at ~2.7x times the pace of Republicans (15877 registered Democrat ballots mailed vs. 5888 registered Republican ballots mailed). Democrats are also returning ballots at ~2.4x times the rate of Republicans (3041 registered Democrat ballots returned vs 1266 registered Republican ballots returned).
This is pretty impressive given registration rates between Democrats and Republicans are relatively close in Douglas (123276 registered Republicans, 122346 registered Democrats).
Lancaster County
11882 registered Democrat ballots have been mailed compared to 9410 registered Republican ballots mailed. Not as big a gap as Douglas county, but still a gap. The return rate percentage is about 40% higher for registered Democrats (3901 ballots returned) compared to Republicans (2783 ballots returned). Voter registration for Republicans outpaces Democrats in Lancaster county 75777 compared to 64924.
If the ballots cast continue at their current rate we can expect Lancaster county to exceed their 2010 vote by mail returns nearly a week before the day of the election.
Sarpy County
Sarpy county, like Douglas, has Democrats requesting nearly twice as many absentee ballots compared to Republicans (4061 vs 2305). Democrats have also returned their absentee ballots at a faster clip than Republican voters (929 vs 583). This can be considered rather impressive when you take into consideration that Republicans nearly out number Democrats 2:1 in Sarpy.
In closing
Given the currently results in Nebraska it looks as though Democrats are running an aggressive ground campaign compared to the last midterm in the major metro areas, specifically Omaha. If return rates continue as they are now we may see higher than expected turnout for Democrats in a state that trends Republican.
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